I know this is a time of apprehension for Kenya’s investors. Those with hopes of investing in Kenya are on their chess boards too. One question lingers. Will Kenya’s March general elections be peaceful? I realized that this matter particularly bothers our regional neighbours. The 2007 post election violence impacted adversely on their supply systems…..Uganda, Southern Sudan, DRC, Rwanda and Burundi who obtain fuel and other consumer goods through Kenya’s rail and road network. I recall a Ugandan I met in Kigali in January 2008 starting off, ‘‘You Kenyans made me stay in my village against my wish for over a week. There wasn’t any fuel for my travel to Kampala after you caused chaos. I almost got late for this meeting’’. A Burundi national who heard him then chipped in saying, “Even I didn’t have cooking gas as I left home. There were no supplies”. Locally, the skirmishes in major towns like Kisumu, Eldoret, Nakuru and Nairobi directly undermined major business investments too. So neighbouring States, local and international investors have reason to be anxious!

Ironically, I again found myself in Kigali recently and had to contend with obvious fears about the 4th March election. East African colleagues next to me quickly scrambled for some of the local reading materials that I’d carried with analysis on Kenya’s next elections. I was surprised to hear them discussing some of our presidential candidates in detail. It’s then that I realized how keenly East African nationals are watching us. Shall we maintain peace during and after this time, they wondered. Should they brace themselves for interruptions in the supply of basic commodities once again? I think not!

Kenya will end up with a president from one of the leading coalitions. You will notice that each of them comprises of influential backroom patrons or frontline actors who‘ve been President, Vice President or senior Ministers. These people have all heavily invested in Kenya and are major beneficiaries of trade in a peaceful environment. Without peace, they stand to lose most. For these reasons, the patrons and key actors will do everything they can to see a peaceful election. Then unlike in 2007, Kenyans have in the last four years developed an entire ‘industry’ to promote peace before, during and after the general elections. Our electoral commission is now far more believable while the security agencies have upped preventive strategies. Peace groups thrive at national and county levels and civil society has heavily mobilized to encourage peaceful elections countrywide. Our religious leaders are also keeping good countrywide vigil for a peaceful election.

Our judiciary has repeatedly affirmed its capacity to handle any electoral disputes and, luckily, this year’s political alliances appear to have mellowed ethnic tensions. Our media keeps urging peace and recently coordinated a live presidential debate which delivered some rather unexpected result. The candidates met, shook hands and discussed key issues in controlled studio environment with the entire nation in attention. Each one of them kept civil and measured in their remarks, even over issues they’d perhaps have ‘erupted’ about ordinarily. This conditioned public accountability tempers campaign moods and rhetoric and will have a great containment effect on party adherents and voters. These factors will converge towards a peaceful general election in Kenya in March.

But we must keep in mind that the key issues of ethnicity, insecurity, joblessness, poverty and disparities in wealth distribution remain. Kenya’s long term peace and stability highly depends on a systematic and structured response to these key challenges. This will be the harder part for whoever wins.